|Topalov, Galina Sharikova. „Nabucco“ was left without gas|
2009 05 22
The Prague Summit “Southern Corridor – the new Silk Road” did not justify the expectations of the European Union. The international summit in Prague was actually ruptured. As reported by RIA “Novosti” from the international summit in Prague, representatives of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have decided not to sign the Declaration aimed at obligating the interested parties to come to a final solution concerning “Nabucco” by June this year already.
Particular expectations of the European Union were related with Turkmenia, as this country was identified as the principal supplier of gas to the pipeline “Nabucco”.
Withdrawal of Turkmenistan means actually the end of the project “Nabucco”. “Gas pipe line is left without the base of resources, as there will be no gas to feed the pipe, - confirmed Vitalij Gromadin, analyst of the IK “Arbat Kapital”, - it is clear that such behaviour of the key suppliers to “Nabucco” is favourable for the competitor – the Russian project “Southern Stream”, and subsequently, "Gazprom”.
The “Southern Stream” – a project of Russian–Italian gas pipeline, which will be laid down along the bottom of the Black Sea from Novorosijsk to the Bulgarian sea port Varna. Further two branch-lines of the pipe will cross the peninsular of Balkans…
The EU member states consider the project “Nabucco” as an alternative to the “Southern Stream” of “Gazprom”, however, it was uncertain till recently, who is going to be the principle supplier of gas to this pipeline.
Experts considered Iran as the only candidate, however, because of political disagreements between the leaders of the EU and Machmud Ahmadinejad, it was scarcely credible that Iran will feed the gas pipeline "Nabucco". Everything has changed in March, when conflict between Russia and Turkmenia started. The authorities of Turkmenistan started making meaningful reverences towards “Nabucco”, and specialists undeclined the possibility that now the gas from Turkmenia will be directed to the pipeline “Nabucco”.
Obviously, leaders of the Central Asia countries have nevertheless decided to continue cooperation with Russia.
Expert of the Centre of political juncture Shatilov considers that Russia has send a message through its diplomatic channels to the authorities of Turkmenia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, that the signing of the declaration would hinder them in the future to receive more favourable regime in economic cooperation.
Moreover, experts are prone to consider that nothing has been finally solved yet. The authorities of Turkmenistan will, most probably, continue negotiations with “Nabucco”, - it is for Turkmenia a means of making pressure on Russia in seeking for any preferential conditions and a possibility to consider all risks, attractive and negative sides of both projects.
Material has been prepared by the Centre for Geopolitical Studies with reference to the article from “Gazeta.ru“ of 8 May 2009.