A Turkish fighter jet shot down RussianSu-24 bomber aircraft on 24 November. Today we can speak about the first lessons of this incident. In fact these lessons are for Russia which clearly demonstrates that the so called red lines still exist in the world.

This month Russia stepped up military pressure on Ukraine, concentrating about fifty thousand troops along its border with Ukraine, using its proxy militias to shell Ukrainian government positions in the Donbas, and threatening Kyiv with "a big war."

Today configuration of Russia’s geopolitical game is more or less clear: Russia is focused on Ukraine. By stealing Crimea and fuelling conflicts in Eastern Ukraine, Russia has trespassed the red line. The West couldn’t ignore this. We could only guess Moscow’s expectations at the beginning of this game. Maybe they were the same in the war with Georgia in 2008: the West will not have unanimous position, will not take Moscow’s aggression for granted and avoid conflicts with Russia. The first cautious response of the West let the Kremlin believe that this was precisely the direction in which things were going. When Western world cautiously responded to Crimea’s annexation with the first wave of sanctions, Moscow laughed.

According the latest information, the United States will deploy heavy military equipment in Central and Eastern Europe. Specific figures and details have not been disclosed yet, but it seems that this equipment is meant for a ground force of 3000-4000 soldiers to be deployed in the entire region: Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Baltic States. The U.S. is going to spread Abrams battle tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and artillery systems.

The Second World War was the major tragedy and lesson of the 20th century. Some European leaders took part in a ceremony marking 70 years since the end of the war on 8 May in Poland (Westerplatte), whereas Russia commemorated Victory Day – 9 May – marking the end of the so called Great Patriotic War. But the atmosphere and focal points of the two ceremonies differed.

By the end of the Cold War the global arms trade has decreased, yet, according to the estimations of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI, global military expenditure has increased by 37 percent since 1997 (during the recent years it rose by 16 percent).

The world is still waiting for measures of the Minsk Agreement to be implemented. Ukraine experiences continual military confrontation, and situation in Debaltseve region has also worsened dramatically. According to the recent information thousands of Ukrainian troops could again be trapped in the Debaltseve boiler. The Ukrainian side denies siege possibilities, whereas separatists inform on their achievements in encircling Ukrainian troops.

When Western world cautiously responded to Crimea’s annexation with the first wave of sanctions, Moscow laughed. Later it imposed responsive sanctions and started reorienting the economy toward China.  

Among the analogies which are often treated as „uncomfortable“ is the comparison of Russian President Vladimir Putin with Adolf Hitler, the leader of Nazi Germany. 

Some people say that it is a good analogy. This is reflected not only in the vocabulary of Russian opposition which calls Putin „Putler“. Some time ago active youth movement „Nashi“ was named „Putinjugend“. Ironically, Putin is more often compared with Hitler than with Stalin who defeated Hitler. Besides, when Putin came into power, people started to more fearlessly rehabilitate Stalin who in the Russian textbooks got rid of the image of a ruthless dictator and became an „effective manager“.

Some time ago Ukrainian scientist G.Pocheptsov described information war as a „struggle for human mind“. Today we can see that Russia is the most progressive among the countries seriously considering the opportunities of an information war. Russia has already won one information war - a civil war directed against own society.

Russia is fighting against Ukraine, yet it is quite difficult to qualify this war. Although the countries are on the verge of a real war, the conflict has not yet reached the stage of a hot war. We must not also ignore another – propaganda – war which could be evaluated both, as preparation for actual war actions and as one of the forms of aggression.

The concept of smart defence is quite new although its principles have been discussed for several years. Today smart defence could be considered as one of the main NATO‘s philosophies which will be pursued by the Alliance at least during the recent decade.

According to a U.S. expert on Central Asia (CA) Martha Brill Olcott, withdrawal of the U.S. forces from Afghanistan might destabilize situation in CA countries. „Compared to the last decade of 20th century, Central Asian states have reinforced their troops but danger is still there“. In this context it would be interesting to know who could take care of CA states if they are not able to do that independently.

Tensions between China and Japan, the second and third largest economies, have been mounting over claims to a set of islands in the East China Sea. Taiwan also claims the questionable Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

At the beginning of August, on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war, in the documentary film “The Lost Day” posted on the Internet, several retired top Russian generals accused the then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of failing to act decisively in “responding against Georgia’s aggression with respect to citizens of South Ossetia in 2008”.

For effective complex defence of Latvia, the establishment of a permanent division of the National Armed Forces has started in Latgale, reported the official website of the Ministry of Defence.

On 13 January a concert "Together to the victory" was held in Lithuania, where the audience decided to support Ukraine's defence and donated 110 thousand Euros.

Alexander Lukashenko on 9 January signed a decree № 8 "On the establishment of visa-free entry and exit of foreign nationals." The document establishes visa-free entry to Belarus for a period not exceeding 5 days at the entrance through the checkpoint "National Airport Minsk" for citizens of 80 countries, - reported the press service of the President of Belarus.